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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.75 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, 1. FC Magdeburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights