🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.58 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.60 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights