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Dominant 1. FC Kaiserslautern run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-3 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.28 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1. FC Kaiserslautern outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 30%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual 1. FC Kaiserslautern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights