SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% versus SV Darmstadt 98 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.18 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / defence 1.034 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.735 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 44 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 13%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 7.69. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.18 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / def 1.034 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.735 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 67% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (6 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.91) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.00
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.06
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
65.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 13L across 44 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.11 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 8W 6D 7L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 8D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.50 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.43 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 67% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.