SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 for FC St. Pauli and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% versus FC St. Pauli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / defence 1.034 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.849 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. Data: 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 9 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 28%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 / FC St. Pauli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / def 1.034 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.849 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 43% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
Record (5 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 3 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.85x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.44
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.02 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 10D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.86 PPG from 44 outings (8W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 0.86 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (2W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 14D 22L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.36 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
From 5 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46%, FC St. Pauli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 41% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 27% of games; FC St. Pauli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 54% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.