SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Dynamo Dresden to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Dresden stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Dresden's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 0.80 (Dynamo Dresden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Dynamo Dresden and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Dynamo Dresden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dynamo Dresden in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% and Dynamo Dresden 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Dynamo Dresden 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.88 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / defence 0.933 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.953 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 44 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 20%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Dynamo Dresden 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Dynamo Dresden 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.88 / Dynamo Dresden 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / def 0.933 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.953 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dynamo Dresden xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 57% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Dresden 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Dresden's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
57%
1.77
23%
4.33
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.92
1.04
Dynamo Dresden xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
32.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.04 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 10D 21L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden's form line: 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.11 PPG, Dynamo Dresden on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.50 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Dresden in 68%.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.36 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Dynamo Dresden 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46%, Dynamo Dresden 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 77% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 73% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 77% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.