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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out VfL Bochum 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat VfL Bochum 1-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.00 xG and VfL Bochum 1.14 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against VfL Bochum attack 0.84 / defence 1.38, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 57% | Draw 23% | VfL Bochum 21%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, VfL Bochum 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights