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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against SV Elversberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.64, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 69%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights