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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 2-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 42%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights