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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour SpVgg Greuther Fürth, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for SC Paderborn 07.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 59% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.166 / defence 0.993 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.056 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.407. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SC Paderborn 07 games / 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.67 | Draw 5.56 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead the H2H ledger, but SC Paderborn 07 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% BTTS from recent games.

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