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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 59%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights