🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights