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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Preußen Münster 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Preußen Münster 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and Preußen Münster 1.20 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Preußen Münster attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 26% | Preußen Münster 29%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, Preußen Münster 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights