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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Preußen Münster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Preußen Münster 2-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.48 xG and Preußen Münster 1.55 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Preußen Münster landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Preußen Münster attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 25% | Preußen Münster 39%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, Preußen Münster 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights