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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC finished level at 2-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.49 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 62% | Draw 20% | Karlsruher SC 18%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Karlsruher SC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.71 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights