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Shock result as Karlsruher SC defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 37%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Karlsruher SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, Karlsruher SC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights