SC Paderborn 07 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 0.89 PPG across 9 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 1.01 PPG lead over SSV Jahn Regensburg (1.90 vs 0.89) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 78% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 67% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.20 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.002 / defence 0.834 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.541 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.522. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 SC Paderborn 07 games / 7 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Draw 22% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 8%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.43 | Draw 4.55 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 12.50. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (70%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Draw 22% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.20 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.002 / def 0.834 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.541 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.69
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 70% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 8% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.00x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.54x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
70%
1.43
22%
4.52
8%
12.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.89
0.69
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
12.55
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
113.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.69 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 5W 4D 0L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.56 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 22%.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.50 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Paderborn 07) and 50% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.20 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.54 / defence 1.42, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 70% | Draw 22% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 8%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.