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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.

Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.40 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 64% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | Hertha BSC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.081 / defence 1.051 | Hertha BSC attack 1.272 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.354. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 SC Paderborn 07 games / 56 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 2.13. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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