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Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out SC Paderborn 07 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG and Hertha BSC 1.68 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Hertha BSC attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 42%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, Hertha BSC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights