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Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SC Paderborn 07.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat SC Paderborn 07 0-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG and Hannover 96 1.59 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Hannover 96 attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 39%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 59%, Hannover 96 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.83 PPG, Hannover 96 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights