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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hamburger SV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 2-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and Hamburger SV 1.80 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 43%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 68%, Hamburger SV 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.58 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights