SC Paderborn 07 2-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 welcome FC St. Pauli to Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, FC St. Pauli have recorded 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of FC St. Pauli's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–2 FC St. Pauli — a FC St. Pauli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus FC St. Pauli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 72% | FC St. Pauli 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC St. Pauli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.30 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / defence 1.047 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.092 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.291. FC St. Pauli bring a tight defence (rating 0.756, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SC Paderborn 07's projected output down. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 43 games and FC St. Pauli's last 43.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.08 | Draw 3.66 | FC St. Pauli 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.30 / FC St. Pauli 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / def 1.047 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.092 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 32% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.03) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 43 games and FC St. Pauli's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.66
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
FC St. Pauli xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.48 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 20W 9D 14L from 43 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 8L across 43 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.60 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 14W 1D 6L from their last 21 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.70 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 21W 14D 8L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.05 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 March 2024: FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, FC St. Pauli 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 62% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 57% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 76% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli finished level at 2-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.30 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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