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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.31 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 35%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 58%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.65 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights