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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.56 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.32 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Kaiserslautern outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 31%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 66%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights