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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.64 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights