Preußen Münster 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Preußen Münster welcome VfL Bochum to Preussenstadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Preußen Münster have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preußen Münster's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VfL Bochum away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfL Bochum are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Preußen Münster's games and 60% of VfL Bochum's (from Preußen Münster's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Preußen Münster have won 1, VfL Bochum 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Preußen Münster 2–1 VfL Bochum — a Preußen Münster win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Preußen Münster in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preußen Münster 63% versus VfL Bochum 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | VfL Bochum 48%). Note also that VfL Bochum surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Preußen Münster recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.882 / defence 1.019 | VfL Bochum attack 0.909 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.300. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 54 games and VfL Bochum's last 20.
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.95 | Draw 3.37 | VfL Bochum 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Bochum at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 80% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Preußen Münster 1.15 / VfL Bochum 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.882 / def 1.019 | VfL Bochum attack 0.909 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Preußen Münster 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum part of?
Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 34% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.88x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Preußen Münster's last 54 games and VfL Bochum's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.35
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.20 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Preußen Münster's recent record stands at 13W 18D 23L from 54 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 29L across 54 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preußen Münster on 1.06 PPG, VfL Bochum on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Preußen Münster have managed 7W 12D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across their last 27 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preußen Münster come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.13 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
Preußen Münster (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preußen Münster
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or VfL Bochum away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.22 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2025. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
1
Draws
0
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Preußen Münster have won 1, VfL Bochum have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Preußen Münster 1-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum?
Preußen Münster have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 63%, VfL Bochum 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Preußen Münster) and 48% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 26% of games; VfL Bochum in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Preußen Münster's games and 56% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 48% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 63% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 21, as Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.20 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against VfL Bochum attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.06 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 21
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →