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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, as Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.28 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 31%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 0.93 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights