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Stalemate at Preußen Münster's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 finished level at 0-0 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.72 / defence 0.95 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 34%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 0.94 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights