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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 1-1 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.45 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 46%, SC Paderborn 07 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights