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Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Preußen Münster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat Preußen Münster 0-2 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 2.02 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.00 / defence 1.40, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 55% | Draw 21% | Karlsruher SC 23%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Karlsruher SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 51%, Karlsruher SC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.10 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights