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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Preußen Münster and Karlsruher SC drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.30 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.70 / defence 0.97 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 38% | Draw 29% | Karlsruher SC 33%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 43%, Karlsruher SC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights