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Preußen Münster cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.91 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.77, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 59% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 17%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 54%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 0.91 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights