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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Preußen Münster edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.35 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, Holstein Kiel 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.07 PPG, Holstein Kiel 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights