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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out Preußen Münster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.46 xG and Hertha BSC 1.94 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Hertha BSC attack 1.30 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 28% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 48%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, Hertha BSC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.07 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights