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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster and Hannover 96 finished level at 2-2 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.24 xG and Hannover 96 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Hannover 96 attack 1.27 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 31% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 44%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, Hannover 96 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights