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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Preußen Münster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.18 xG and Hamburger SV 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against Hamburger SV attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 29% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 44%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 55%, Hamburger SV 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights