🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat Preußen Münster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.82 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.25 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 1.29, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 51% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 47%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.13 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights