Preußen Münster 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Preußen Münster welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Preußen-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preußen Münster stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's home record at Preußen-Stadion: 0W 3D 2L from 5 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Preußen Münster's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Preußen Münster trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preußen Münster 70% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 0.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.776 / defence 1.096 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.167 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.593. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.693 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Preußen Münster games / 44 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 14% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 14% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Preußen Münster 0.89 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.776 / def 1.096 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.167 / def 0.693 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.593 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Preußen Münster 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 14% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.78x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
14%
7.17
24%
4.21
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.93
2.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
7.17
14%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
13%
7.67
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
54.96
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 2.04 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preußen Münster come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 4D 5L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preußen Münster's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 3.00 points per game from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Fortuna Düsseldorf travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 0.60 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Preußen Münster or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preußen Münster have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Preußen Münster's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
1
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-0 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preußen Münster see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 60%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Preußen Münster) and 60% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%; Preußen Münster have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 40% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preußen Münster defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 0.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 14% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Preußen Münster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 60%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Preußen Münster winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.