🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Preußen Münster's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster and FC Schalke 04 finished level at 0-0 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.26 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.43 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.04 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 41%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, FC Schalke 04 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.09 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights