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Preußen Münster cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.35 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Preußen Münster beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.08 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights