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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster and Eintracht Braunschweig finished level at 1-1 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.20 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.99 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 33% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 46%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.00 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights