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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and Dynamo Dresden share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 9, as Preußen Münster and Dynamo Dresden drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.86 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.19 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 53% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 24%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 88%, Dynamo Dresden 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Preußen Münster arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights