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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat Preußen Münster 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld beat Preußen Münster 2-3 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.34 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.74 / defence 1.11 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 41% | Draw 32% | Arminia Bielefeld 28%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 60%, Arminia Bielefeld 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 0.93 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights