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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Preußen Münster edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.33 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 41% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 44%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.03 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights