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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat Karlsruher SC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat Karlsruher SC 1-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 2.16 xG and VfL Bochum 1.19 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Karlsruher SC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.21 / defence 1.22 against VfL Bochum attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 58% | Draw 23% | VfL Bochum 19%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a VfL Bochum win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 73%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights