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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SV Elversberg defy the odds to beat Karlsruher SC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat Karlsruher SC 2-3 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.47 xG and SV Elversberg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against SV Elversberg attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 38% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 37%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 70%, SV Elversberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.59 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights