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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 2.41 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.27 / defence 1.25 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 52% | Draw 21% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 72%, SV Darmstadt 98 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.42 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights