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Stalemate at Karlsruher SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC and SSV Ulm 1846 finished level at 0-0 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.83 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.19 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karlsruher SC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 52% | Draw 25% | SSV Ulm 1846 24%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 76%, SSV Ulm 1846 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights