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Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Karlsruher SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Karlsruher SC 0-4 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.44 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.46 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 37% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 38%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 71%, SC Paderborn 07 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.49 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights