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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 4-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 2.50 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.99 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Karlsruher SC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.56 / defence 1.54, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 69% | Draw 20% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 12%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 76%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights